Jacobsen Blog

My WordPress Blog

Navigation Menu

Tech tallow remains quiet and the market appears to be well sold

Posted on Nov 17, 2017 in Animal Fats & Oils

Chicago renderer BFT remains offered and unsold at $0.2700. Tech tallow remains quiet and the market appears to be well sold for the 30 day position.

Choice white grease was lower out of the Mo. River market, $0.2300 – 0.2500. Indiana action was done in a range, $0.2450 – 0.2625. Biodiesel is active at the lower end of the range, while feed buyers are taking in material at the top. A need for CWG in the hog rations is helping keep those top levels in place despite the availablity of cheaper corn oil and yellow grease.

Figure 1.

The weekly average price of CWG Mo. River is shown against the average of the weekly averages of the Mo. River DCO and Illinois DCO markets for 2013 – 2017 YTD.

Corn oil traded as low as $0.2200 delivered Midwest today. Manly, IA action was reported $0.2500 – $0.2600 for Dec. Dec/Jan action in the IN/OH market was lower, $0.2600 – 0.2625 FOB.

Yellow grease trading was lower out of the Mo. River market, $0.2150 – 0.2300.

Read More

Weekly Export Sales

Posted on Nov 17, 2017 in Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil, and Grain

Soybean export sales for the 2017/18 marketing year were 1,104.8 TMT, down 5% from last week and 32% less than the prior 4-week average.  Sales for the 2018/19 crop year totaled 72.1 TMT, lifting combined season sales to 1,176 TMT, which was within analyst expectations that ranged from 1,000 to 1,650 TMT.  Combined sales were up 1.4% week over week.  2017/18 export commitments are 53% of the USDA forecast with 42 weeks to go. Current sales are 15% behind last year’s pace. Major purchases were reported for China, the Netherlands, and Turkey.

Soybean meal sales for the 2017/18 marketing season were 163.1 TMT, down 49.8 TMT from last week and 26% less than the prior 4-week average. New crop season totaled 6.4 TMT lifting combined sales to 169.5 TMT. Combined season sales were down 20% week over week but within analyst expectations that ranged from 125 to 250 TMT. Accumulated export commitments for the 2017/18 marketing year are 39% of forecast. Major purchases were made by the Philippines, Morocco, and Japan.

Soybean oil 2017/18 export sales of 2,700 metric tons were down 83% from last week and 32% less than the prior 4-week average. There were no new crop sales, leaving total sales at 2.7 TMT. Total sales were less than analyst expectations that ranged from 15 to 30 TMT. 2017/18 crop year commitments are 20% of forecast and 47% less than last year’s commitments over the same period. Major purchases were made by Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala.

Weekly corn export sales for the 2017/18 marketing season of 949.5 TMT were down 60% from the week prior and 34% less than the prior 4-week average. New crop sales were 5 TMT, down 569.2 TMT week over week, lifting total sales to 954.5 TMT.  Combined sales were within analyst expectations that ranged from 800 to 2,200 TMT. Increases were reported for Mexico, Japan, and Peru. 2017/18 export commitments are 42% of the USDA forecast. Export sales trail last year’s pace by 26%.

Wheat export sales for the 2017/18 marketing year totaled 489,300 metric tons.  Sales were down 37% from last week and 7% less than the prior 4-week average. New crop sales totaled 30 TMT, lifting total sales to 519.3 TMT. Combined sales are down 34% from last week but fell within analyst expectations that ranged from 350 to 800 TMT. Export commitments are 62% of the USDA forecast with 29 weeks to go. Export sales are 5% less than last year’s commitments during the same time frame. Major purchases were made by Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea.

a

a

Read More

International Hide Activity in China

Posted on Nov 17, 2017 in Hide & Leather

November 10

Buying interest was decent most of this week from tanneries, but most buyers were not willing to pay more money for hides even though packers are holding a very firm tone on some selections such as BBS and HNS.

Many believe this active market will not last long and it will soon come back to quiet when the packers begin to make offers for February/March shipment. Some tanners have been active buyers over the past few weeks because they think it might be the last chance to get hides before the winter season. Also, some buyers who stayed out of the market for too long now need buy some hides even though the leather demand remains slow for many of them.

Most buyers bid below $60 for HTS and between $60-$65 for BBS and HNS C&F. Meanwhile, some packers have started to increase the price for HTS over $60 and BBS/HNS over $65. Several agents reported they were not able to get any HTS sold at $60 or higher this week. Apparently, some packers are feeling more bullish this week than previous weeks; however, most buyers are not feeling the same way.

November 5

The major packers made similar offers as last week. Heavy native and butt branded steers are still the most popular items buyers prefer. Some heavy Texas steers and most Colorado branded steers remain difficult to find many buyers.

Few buyers were willing to pay US$2-$3 more for the packer hides they wanted and many insisted they can only pay the same price as they did for last business. Also, many buyers claimed that they were buying hides only because they wanted to have a supply of best-season hides in hand before winter time comes, not because the leather demand has improved. Some people are quick to point out that we will see a very quiet market again in late November or early December while the packers begin to make new offers with real winter time shipments. Most buyers would walk away by then unless they have new leather orders and must keep buying hides. The quality of the leather out of American packer hides remains an issue for some shoe leather producers and a few have turned to European hides to match their grading requirements.

In general, many people in the China market do not believe the American hide market has finally grounded and will begin to go up. Their feeling is this market still lacks enough energy to move up while the primary market for American steer hides—the shoe leather business—remains slow in China. Price from US$55-$60 for CBS/HTS and US$62-$65 for BBS/HNS are reported, with a few good quality HNS sold close to $70. Several packers tried, but failed to get $70+ booked for HNS.

Read More

Biomass-based diesel production up 5.5%

Posted on Nov 17, 2017 in Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil, and Grain

October 2017 Biomass-based diesel production up 5.5% from September on stronger domestic production

According to the EPA’s latest EMTS data, 227.475 million biomass-based diesel gallons were produced.  This is the 10thhighest monthly production rate on record and the fifth highest rate this year. Production increased 5.52% from September and was up 1.2% from October of 2016. Year to date, 2.060 billion D4 gallons have been produced, 42.91 million more than was produced over the same 2016-time frame. The production rate through October has surpassed the 2.0 billion gallon D4 mandate.

If the industry were to continue to produce/blend at the rate seen in October, there would be 2.52 billion gallons and 3.86 billion RINs consumed.  This would bring production close to the pace necessary to satisfy both the D4 and unspecified portion of the D5 mandate without having to use banked RINs.

105% of the D4 mandate (based on RINs) is satisfied. However, only 18% of the unspecified portion of the D5 mandate has been filled, up from 17% last month. With the D4 mandate satisfied, D4 production will remain necessary to fill the gap in the overall Advanced biofuel mandate.  An additional 249.4 million gallons per month could be necessary to fulfill the unspecified portion of the D5 mandate (this amount is up from 243.4 million last month). This holds true only if the EPA’s estimated gasoline and diesel consumption figures prove to be on target.

The D4 category is a combination of both biodiesel and renewable diesel production. October saw biodiesel production increase after fading the month prior due to a cessation of Argentine imports, while renewable diesel production rates continued to improve.  Renewable diesel output increased 4.6%, moving from 39.26 million gallons to 41.27 million. Biodiesel production also increased, moving from 176.10 million gallons to 186.21 million; a 5.74% rise from September. Biodiesel represents 82% of October 2017 D4 production while renewable diesel accounts for 18%.  Biodiesel production is up 0.29% year over year. RD production is 11.23% stronger.

Domestic production accounts for 1.464 billion of the 2.060 billion D4 gallons produced so far in 2017.  596.81 million gallons were received as imports.  During October, it is estimated that 45.25 million biodiesel gallons and 10.08 million renewable diesel gallons were imported.

The EPA revised the Jan through Sep production totals higher, adding 560,111 RINs and 353,923 gallons to the D4 totals. During October, domestic production accounted for 267.37 million RINs, importers contributed 54.99 million and 27.70 million RINs were from foreign production. Month over month, domestic RIN production was up 8.25 million, importers increased by 11.75 million, and foreign production was down 0.96 million RINs.

a

a

a

a

 

 

Biodiesel Market

The closing numbers

 

a

a

a

a

Read More