Posted on Sep 14, 2017 in Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil, and Grain

Soybean yield per harvested acre increased by 0.5 bushels for the 2017/18 crop year, moving from 49.4 bushels per acre to 50.  This bumped production/supply higher by 50 million bushels. However, there was no increase to ending stocks since exports were forecast 25 million bushels higher and beginning stocks were reduced by 25 million bushels.   Crush expectations for the 2016/17 crop year were increased from 1.89 billion bushels to 1.895 billion.  2016/17 soybean exports were also raised by 20 million bushels to 2.17 billion. 2017/18 crush expectations remain unchanged at 1.940 billion bushels, a 2.37% increase from the 2016/17 crush forecast.

Soybean oil saw numerous adjustments made to both the 2016/17 estimated numbers and the 2017/18 crop year projections.  For the 2016/17 crop year, soybean oil production was increased by 95 million pounds.  This was more than offset by biodiesel production running stronger than forecast and domestic disappearance being greater than anticipated.  Each category is now projected to use 50 million pounds more.  Biodiesel consumption is forecast at 6.05 billion pounds, while ‘food/feed/other’ is projected at 13.65 billion.  Exports were also raised 150 million pounds.  These adjustments brought a forecasted reduction of 155 million pounds to 2016/17 crop season ending stocks.  The 2017/18 soybean oil productions started with the previously calculated 155-million-pound reduction to ending stocks.  Due to the countervailing duties imposed on Argentina and Indonesian biodiesel, domestic biodiesel production is now forecast much higher and a corresponding addition of 550 million pounds of soybean oil demand is projected by the biodiesel industry.  This increased projected use to 7 billion pounds.  Partially offsetting the increased biodiesel demand is 200-million-pound demand reduction from the export market and a 20-million-pound reduction in domestic disappearance other than biodiesel.  These changes have led to 2017/18 ending stocks being forecast 305 million pounds lighter, at 1.757 billion pounds.

2016/17 corn estimated ending stocks were forecast 20 million bushels lower, at 2.35 billion bushels.  This reduction stems from a 70 million bushel increase in export demand.  2016/17 exports are now projected to be 2.295 billion bushels.  Partially offsetting the increased export demand was reductions in domestic use, including a 15-million-bushel reduction in ethanol production demand.  2017/18 crop year projections started with a projected yield increase of 4 tenths of bushel per harvested acre, pushing projections to 169.9 bushels per acre. This led to increased production projections of 31 million bushels, which more than offset the 20 million bushel decrease to beginning stocks. Domestic foo, feed and industrial use was lower.  This included a 25-million-bushel reduction in ethanol corn demand due to lowered export projections. With supply rising and use falling, corn ending stocks are forecast 62 million bushels higher from last month for the 2017/18 crop season.

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