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Broiler slaughter is continuing along at a strong pace this year

Posted on Jun 19, 2017 in U.S. and International Animal Fats & Protein

Ruminant MBM traded steady out of the Mo. River market today with nine loads reported at $235. Trading elsewhere was quiet to wrap up the week with most looking ahead at next week.

Broiler slaughter is continuing along at a strong pace this year, up 1% compared to a year ago. The export market has been the major driver of price this year, pushing big volume out of the interior market. If those exports slow, whether by demand or perhaps increased competition from Europe, the lack of disappearance combined with heavier kills could explain the lower prices.

Figure 1.

The monthly broiler slaughter is shown as an average for 2009 – 2014 and 2015 – May 2017.

Please contact Ryan Standard at ryan@thejacobsen.com or 563.223.9021 with any questions, comments or trading.

Broiler-fryer slaughter under federal inspection for 16-Jun-17 and 17-Jun-17 is estimated to be 34,744,000 head up 1.62 percent from a week ago and up 4.4 percent from a year ago.(Last week 34,189,000, last year 33,264,000)

Weekly broiler-fryer slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 17-Jun-17 is estimated to be 168,331,000 head up 2.09 percent from a week ago, and up 3.80 percent from a year ago.(Last week 164,892,000, last year 162,161,000)

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May Animal Feed Market Activity

Posted on May 15, 2017 in U.S. and International Animal Fats & Protein

Market Activity

Ruminant MBM trading was reported $205 – 250 out of the Mo. River market today, $260 topside out of IL. Sources continue to report the same dynamics, strong headwinds into the blend sector, but pet food is paying values at the top end of the range. Those with export licenses are moving material at much higher prices.

Blood meal trading was quiet today, but sources suggested the trading range may be headed lower next week. Cattle kills were estimated at 609,000 head for the week, down 3,000 from last week, but up 11,000 head compared to the same week last year.

Please contact Ryan Standard at 563.223.9021 or ryan@thejacobsen.com with any questions, comments or trading.

Broiler-fryer slaughter under federal inspection for 12-May-17 and 13-May-17 is estimated to be 34,356,000 head down 3.92 percent from a week ago and up 1.5 percent from a year ago. (Last week 35,759,000, last year 33,832,000)

Weekly broiler-fryer slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 13-May-17 is estimated to be 166,646,000 head up 2.95 percent from a week ago, and up 2.57 percent from a year ago. (Last week 161,870,000, last year 162,473,000)

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Sources Are Anticipating a Drop Off in the Indonesian Market

Posted on Apr 18, 2017 in U.S. and International Animal Fats & Protein

Trading into Indonesia and China was reported steady this week, $540 – 560 CIF. Sources are anticipating a drop off in the Indonesian market when pre-Ramadan shipments conclude, but there are reports of other SEA countries stepping in and building pipelines.

The Australian and New Zealand markets were steady this week with no changes reported with the exception of the Australian domestic price. Local trading was reported higher, $675 – 700, catching up with the export values. Production in the Australian market remains tight as slaughter continues, and will continue, well below the last few year’s numbers.

US export values were steady on feathermeal with action reported at $530 – 550/MT. Sources have reported higher numbers on 60 pro PM, $655 – 660/MT. Offers for the next trading period are higher as demand is reportedly very strong. Pet grade poultry prices are up sharply, $850 – 870/MT into SEA. Trading into China has been done at $950/MT.

Ruminant MBM in the local market trading continues in a wide range, $240 – 265/ST ($265 – 290/MT) for mixed species material and $285/ST ($315/MT) for pure beef. Porcine is sinking under the weight of heavy supplies and may start to weigh on the ruminant market.

The pet grade PBM disappearance into the export market has tightened up local supply and driven domestic prices up sharply. Trading this week was reported $725 – 750/ST or $800 – 825/MT, which would put the next export price north of $900/MT CIF SEA. Since late Q3 of last year sources had predicted big spring numbers on pet grade poultry meal and their prognostications are coming true. Demand from China for pet food production has been the main driver through much of 2017.

US Protein Exports

Inedible meat meal exports continue to climb with the Jan and Feb 2017 total surpassing the Jan – April total of 2015. February exports of 43,591 MT were up slightly from Jan of 2017 and  up 33.6% compared to February of 2016. The main destinations were Indonesia at 11,970 MT and Mexico at 11,786 MT.

Featheremal exports were off 4.7% compared to February of 2016 and 3.6% compared to January. The main importers were Indonesia at 2,456 MT and China at 1,308 MT.

Table 1.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

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April Animal Feed Market Activity

Posted on Apr 18, 2017 in U.S. and International Animal Fats & Protein

Late last week trading was done at $1050 on ruminant and porcine blood meal out of the Mo. River market. A load of porcine traded today at $1100 FOB Midwest. Sources have reported that the stronger hog kills had put more material in the market. Ruminant MBM traded late on Thursday at $285 FOB Mo. River.

Weekly Review

Trading was done lower on ruminant and porcine MBM last week, with the weekly averages down $4 and $9, respectively. Strong hog kills have kept the market stocked with product. A big buyer in Mexico taking less material than expected has also been blamed for the increased spot availability.

Feathermeal prices were up $3 compared to the prior week’s average. Strong export demand continues to pull material out of the country which means that the non-export approved material has less competition. A number of sources have commented that organic fertilizer demand is very strong and a good number of cars are headed west to satisfy that demand.

Figure 1.

Please contact Ryan Standard at 563.223.9021 or ryan@thejacobsen.com with any questions, comments or trading.

Today Last Week Last Year WTD
Broiler Slaughter 31,177,000 31,702,000 32,272,000 31,177,000
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Two Big Factors in the International Animal Fat Market

Posted on Mar 17, 2017 in U.S. and International Animal Fats & Protein

There are two big factors in the International Animal fat market.  The first is the demand for fats and oils into Singapore.  Currently, with the palm oil prices moving lower there has been less demand and the sellers are seeing less “tire kicking” for other fats/oils into Singapore, both showing lower bids and trading prices.   Secondly, the new US administration has given no credible hints on what they will do with the Renewable Fuels Standards which is leaving a lot of uncertainty in the market place.  With many of the sellers, especially North American fat sellers, have one eye on Singapore and one eye on the US Government.  With “The Donald” at the USA helm, it is anyone’s guess what will happen with the RFS standards.  Which is about all I can say on this issue which will continue to have the industry scratching their heads.  Enough about that topic.

Another thing that hit me like a big pizza of pie was a statement from a source stating Argentina over the last 45 days has shipped tallow 10% Max acid to the EU for use in biofuels.  I have to admit I don’t know about the price nor if this is typical type business that I just discovered.  If you can enlighten me please do so at billyd@thejacobsen.com.

In the US tallow prices are mostly unchanged, with a good volume of cash trading at $650 pmt for 4% BFT with a small volume trading $11 higher.  Otherwise, the US buyers have been booking good volumes of tallow on “formula” contracts which are flat priced when the car is shipped based on an agreed upon formula. Export prices though have seen some weaker prices across the board.

US distillers corn oil production is still very good and moving into the biodiesel operations.  There was a report that DCO in Europe was down 10 Euros this week.

There is a definite weakening of tallow and fat prices in AUS, while in NZ prices are mostly steady but from what I can tell they would be biddable.

Palm stearin prices are down to $690 FOB Malaysia this week a $12.50 pmt decline from a week ago.  As Ryan mentioned a week ago, there is probably further decline coming in palm stearin as we head into April-May.

European animal fat prices are unchanged to Euros 10/14 lower.

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Quiet Week of Trading

Posted on Mar 17, 2017 in U.S. and International Animal Fats & Protein

So far it has been a relatively quiet week throughout the trade as some traders are in Thailand for the POV meeting.  There will be good demand coming for all proteins going into Indonesia as the feed compounders fatten up their pipelines ahead of Ramadan which begins May 26 and continues for a month.

MBM prices into Indo range from $490 to $510 CnF for material out of the EU and SAM.  While material out of North America is offered more in the $520 to $540 CnF Indo range.  In the US there is a very wide range in the FOB origin ruminant MBM prices from $286 to $320 pmt.  There are indications that some of the ruminant MBM in the US could fetch $340 FOB Origin for export material.  Certainly this may actually be the cause for the wide range in the US quoted markets.  Without export, I would guess the US ruminant MBM price to be on the lower end of the range.  Competing proteins are plentiful with Distillers Dried Grains still very abundant and well-priced for domestic and export market usage.

US feather meal is a funny market.  By that I mean prices are mostly steady, but word on the street is that material is trading well under the quoted prices.  It certainly isn’t going to blenders as it is said the blended proteins moving into the US poultry industry is slow.  The market price into Indo has seen some decline as seen in the price guide.

One thing coming out of the meeting in Thailand is the apparent growing demand for Pet Food Grade Poultry by Meal as one source who sells US animal proteins indicated everyone by their booth wanted a price on PFGPBM.  Current US prices FOB Origin range from $690 to $770 pmt.

 

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